Two home sides with the territory and the table position on their side. In both games the host has the longer, clearer record of creating and scoring, and the visitors are built to stay compact and hope for a single moment.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima against Shimizu: Hiroshima sit 3rd and play a possession-heavy front three with wing-backs. Over the games with shot data they out-shoot opponents about 17.7 to 8.3 and win corners 7.7 to 1.7, and at home they have won all four recent games, 16 goals to 1. Shimizu are 11th, concede around 15 shots a game and just lost 0-5 at home with a heavy chance gap against them. Hiroshima are without the suspended Arrey and Shimizu without the suspended Matsuzaki, both from official lists. Hiroshima should hold the ball, win set pieces and break a deep block. That's why I'm siding with Hiroshima.
Seoul against Gangwon: Seoul lead the league and score 26 at home while conceding 13 in 15 games. Gangwon are a low-scoring, draw-prone side, around one goal a game, and away they score fewer than Seoul do at home. Seoul's defence has looked loose lately, but Gangwon rarely punish. A goalless first hour is the route Gangwon need, and with the title race on the line Seoul have every reason to push for the early goal. That's why I'm siding with Seoul.
