This match looks like two leaky, open sides rather than a locked draw. San Jose are the draw-heavy team, but those draws came at ordinary chance volume, and their forward group is badly depleted. Salt Lake create more than they give up, though their away record is uneven.
San Jose have drawn four of their last five and sit fifth, yet over eight games with chance data they create about 1.1 expected goals and concede about 1.3. Four forwards are out or flagged, including Werner through suspension, so Judd and Jovanovic carry the line. Salt Lake average about 1.6 expected goals for and 0.9 against over nine games, and even without their one huge outlier the gap stays modestly in their favour.
Salt Lake are thin in midfield with Luna and Eneli out, and Guilavogui is suspended up front, so the visitors lose some bite. Their centre-backs are doubtful, which is the main way San Jose can score. Both teams played a couple of days ago, so rest is level.
I expect trading chances, with Salt Lake's shot volume the more reliable source of an edge and a level result a real possibility that the bet is built to survive. That's why I'm siding with Real Salt Lake.
