Game 3 matches two ground-ball starters who both work deep and both get hurt by the long ball. The early innings look even, because each pitcher has a specific problem with the other side's middle-order power. The two lineups are not where these teams differ. The difference is in the bullpens: one side heads into the late innings without a closer, and the other has its closer rested.
Jurado led the regular season in ground-ball rate and has been the playoff MVP, but KT is the lineup that gave him the most trouble. Hilliard took him deep three times and Kim Hyun-soo once across three starts. So Hyeong-jun is also a sinker-and-cutter ground-ball pitcher, and three of his ten home runs this season came off Samsung's Diaz, Choi Hyoung-woo and Kim Hun-gon. In a hitter-friendly park, the first five innings come down to which middle order catches a mistake.
So has been off for 24 days, which is the obvious worry. In his last start, though, he went six innings and allowed one run with eight strikeouts in this same park against this same Samsung lineup. In Game 2, Ko Young-pyo showed that a long layoff doesn't automatically mean rust when he went seven innings after 22 days off.
The absences are where the series turns. Samsung has lost closer Kim Jae-yoon, and Won Tae-in, who had been covering the role, has been ruled out of relief for this game. Setup men Kim Tae-hoon and Bae Chan-seung pitched in both of the first two games, and Game 2 went twelve innings. KT has closer Park Young-hyun available after the off day.
Both games in this series were decided by one run. In another close game, the eighth and ninth innings matter most, and Samsung will be piecing those innings together from tired or untested arms. KT's own weak spot is the bridge in the sixth and seventh, where Samsung put up five runs in the opener. Get past that stretch level or ahead, and KT holds the better hand at the end.
That's why I'm siding with KT Wiz to win on the road.
