Two games here are decided by which units actually show up, not by the form tables. In Daegu, Game 2 is a starter-against-lineup duel first and a bullpen game second, and the home side changes its pitching plan and its batting order from Game 1. In Seoul, a two-man post attack meets the league's most generous paint defence, and the visitors can only answer from the three-point line.
Samsung against KIA. KIA arrive red hot, with 65 runs over their last ten games, and they won Game 1 by getting to Paddack early: Castro's two-run homer in the 3rd and Han Jun-su's solo shot in the 4th. Then a deep, pre-planned pen covered 4.2 innings and allowed one hit. Samsung managed only two hits in their first competitive game after a two-week layoff.
This match puts a different Samsung on the field. Jurado has the deeper innings profile, including seven innings against KIA earlier this year. Choi Hyung-woo is expected back in the lineup, and Park Jin-man has named Won Tae-in, the domestic ace, as a bullpen option in an all-in game. That fills exactly the bridge a closer-less pen was missing in Game 1, with Kim Jae-yoon and two lefties off the roster. On the other side, Oller has the better season numbers, but his only start at Lions Park against this lineup lasted one inning and cost eight runs.
The game turns in innings one to four. If Jurado keeps KIA's left-handed core quiet early, Won can carry the 7th and 8th and Samsung bat last at home in a close game. KIA's streak and the Game 1 result are what everyone already sees. The unit changes for this match are what I'm weighing, and that's why I'm siding with Samsung to win.
Seoul Knights against KCC. SK win inside: Warney and Hicks lead the league in paint makes, and SK protect the ball against teams that don't force turnovers. KCC lost Song Kyo-chang and Choi Jun-yong in the offseason and now allow the most paint makes and the second-highest two-point percentage in the league. Samsung, KoGas and KT all went straight at that hole.
KCC don't force turnovers, so they can't steal extra possessions, and they come in eight deep with Heo Ung not fully fit and Lee Ho-hyun still out. Their route is a hot night from three through Heo Hoon, Kim Dong-hyun and Yoon Gi-chan. That is a shooting rate, while SK's edge in the paint comes from the roster. Tolentino's status doesn't touch the post matchup, because his wing minutes went to Daniel and Oh Jae-hyun in the last win.
I expect the gap to open in the second and third quarters, when Warney and Hicks share the floor and KCC's thin frontcourt starts collecting fouls. That's why I'm on Seoul Knights to win by a clear margin at home.
