Both heavily favored sides in these matchups are dealing with severe squad crises that make them deeply vulnerable. The expectations on them are simply too high given the sheer number of core players they are missing. By backing the underdogs to keep things competitive, we are taking advantage of makeshift defensive lines and structural instability on the favorites' side.
In the first matchup, Sweden is facing a massive squad depletion due to an illness outbreak and injuries. They are missing key striker Alexander Isak along with several core defenders, severely limiting their ability to dominate proceedings. Romania has struggled recently, but playing on their own turf against a patched-up Swedish side gives them a clear opportunity to keep the scoreline tight. When these two met recently, Sweden barely edged it out even when fielding their full squad.
Over in the other fixture, France is experiencing an unprecedented defensive crisis. They are entirely without their preferred starting central defense—William Saliba, Ibrahima Konate, and Dayot Upamecano are all unavailable—while also missing their captain and star attacker. Belgium has the quality to continuously test a completely revamped French backline. Asking a makeshift defense to win comfortably against top-tier opposition is a tall order, making this a prime spot for the visitors to stay well within touching distance.
