Phoenix can score early through Booker, Green and Bridges, but its leads have depended on closing the rebound and protecting the ball late. Portland has shown it can recover from an early deficit with different creators and extra possessions. Denver's Jokić and Murray provide a strong first punch against Toronto, whose answer comes from multiple ball handlers and work on the glass. In both games, the possession after the first miss matters as much as the first shot.
Clingan's offensive boards helped Portland recover at Denver, with Avdija, Lillard and Holiday each supplying another way to create. Morant and Sharpe missed Portland's recent Denver and Utah games, so this rotation has already worked without them. Williams missed Phoenix's last game and remains out, leaving its current centers to finish those rebounding possessions. Phoenix's late turnovers and incomplete stops give Portland the follow-up chances it has been using well. I'm siding with Portland.
Jokić can draw help and Murray can punish it, but Toronto has Barnes, Quickley and Barrett to produce separate replies. Poeltl missed Toronto's last two games and is questionable; Murray-Boyles started at center in the latest game and helped keep the glass active. Denver gave Portland repeated offensive rebounds even while Jokić and Murray scored. Toronto can use that route and its ball handlers to keep answering after a Denver run. I'm siding with Toronto to stay close.
