Two struggling teams meet here, and neither has a stable way to win. The question is which one is less tired and less depleted. Phoenix is the one carrying the heavier load on this schedule, and its defence has been the weak part of its season.
Phoenix has leaked points for weeks: six of its last ten games went over 120 allowed, with the second and third quarters the usual soft spots. It also plays on the second night of a back-to-back after a heavy home loss, and two rotation players were newly listed out just before this game. Its record is one win in six, so the home court has not been protecting it.
Orlando has its own problems. Several of its main creators are out and its last two home games ended with scores in the 90s. But those absences have been in place for about a week of games, so they are already in the record. Orlando also arrives with three days of rest, against one for Phoenix, and does not need a big night: a normal output against this defence keeps it in the game.
I expect an even start with Phoenix's home energy, then a dip as its thin rotation and tired legs show in the middle quarters and the fourth. Orlando only has to stay level into the final minutes. That's why I'm siding with Orlando to win outright.
