Two favourites on the road and at home, both built on the same idea: the stronger side creates the better chances and the weaker side has only one narrow way back.
Philadelphia is a high-volume home team. Over its last nine games with stats it averaged about 18 shots and 2.5 expected goals against roughly 9 shots and 1.2 conceded. It is unbeaten in ten, with 31 scored and 11 conceded in that run. New England arrives third in the table but leaky on the road, with 15 conceded in ten away games, and it was heavily outshot in its last two matches.
New England is also missing a midfielder and a forward, with a few defenders doubtful. Philadelphia lacks two midfielders, but it has kept producing chances with those absences. I expect Philadelphia to carry the game and win by more than one, and that is why I'm siding with the home team to win clearly.
In Korea's second tier, the table leader Suwon Bluewings visits mid-table Seongnam. Suwon has won nine of 13 away with 23 scored and only 12 conceded, and it beat Seongnam in eight of the last ten meetings. Seongnam is draw-heavy at home, but it has lost two straight and conceded at least twice in each of its last three recorded games.
Suwon tends to score early from open play through Mina and Dubickas, then manage the game. Seongnam's realistic route is a single set-piece or counter goal. That's why I'm siding with Suwon to win away.
