Philadelphia against New England looks like a volume match: one side creates a lot and the other has to live on efficiency and set pieces. Philadelphia's goals tend to arrive early or right after the restart, while New England's chances are more likely to come late, once the game opens up.
Philadelphia average about 18 shots and roughly 2.5 expected goals over their recent games, while allowing around 9 shots. They are unbeaten in their last ten and score around three a game. New England are missing forward Harrison and midfielder Yusuf, so their counter-attacking edge is blunter than usual. Philadelphia are also without two midfielders, which trims the ceiling a little, but the gap in chance volume is the biggest measured fact here.
I expect Philadelphia to push early and build a lead, with New England getting a goal back late. That is why I'm siding with Philadelphia to win by a margin, with a one-goal win giving the stake back.
In Daegu, the KBO playoff opener pits two American starters against each other, so the first five or six innings should be tight and the bullpens decide it. Samsung have lost their closer and two left-handed relievers, which forces a reshuffle of the late innings, while KIA's pen is intact and the team arrives in rhythm after sweeping the first round.
Paddack has struggled against exactly this KIA lineup, with two homers allowed to their top hitters, and Naile has handled Samsung well over four meetings. Samsung's rest and home field, plus one hitter's strong numbers against Naile, keep it close, but the late-inning gap is the clearest edge. That's why I'm siding with KIA to win.
