Two Serie A matches where one side's current content is clearly heavier than the other's. In Venice, Inter keep producing big chance volume even with rotated line-ups, against a deep block that lets shots through. At the Tardini, Udinese arrive with their output collapsing at both ends of the pitch, while Parma's last comparable home game was far better than its scoreline.
Venezia vs Inter: Nicola's Venezia defend deep in a 3-5-2, and their best result under him, the clean sheet against Napoli, came while giving up 29 shots and 2.44 xG. It needed nine saves from Filip Stankovic and a missed penalty. Inter, meanwhile, have created 2.4 xG or more in four of their last five, including away at Bologna and with changed XIs.
The key duel is Inter's wing-backs against Hainaut and Mazzocchi. A back five has to defend crosses and cut-backs for ninety minutes, and that is where Inter's rotated sides have been creating. The players missing for Inter already sat out the last league game, so nothing is new on the day, and Thuram, Calhanoglu and Dimarco are rested rather than injured. That bench has already turned two matches in the past fortnight.
Expect Inter to have the ball against a low block for the first hour. Once they score, Venezia have to come out, and space opens for late runners. Venezia have scored only six league goals, one of them a deflection in Nicola's two games. That's why I'm siding with Inter to win.
Parma vs Udinese: Udinese have conceded between 2.4 and 3.4 xG in each of their last three league games, against different kinds of opponents, and created only 0.4 to 0.7. Bayo and Gueye are out up front, Alaba and Solet at the back. Parma are poor too, but their home game against Torino under Gilardino produced 25 shots and 1.57 xG, and the defeat came from two early errors.
Udinese like to hold the ball, and they have lost it into dangerous attacks in each of their last three. Parma's runners go into the channels after regains, against a back three that has been rebuilt. Udinese's best route is a set piece or a Davis header, and it doesn't need much open play.
It may be cagey before the break, with the game opening up later as Udinese's second halves fall away. A stalemate is a real possibility, but Udinese outscoring Parma looks less likely than the reverse. That's why I'm with Parma not to lose.
