Panathinaikos against Fenerbahce puts first and second in the Euroleague table together, both 3-0, and they have got there by very different routes. Panathinaikos have scored 283 in three games on 39.6% from three, Fenerbahce 254 on 30.2%. What I'd watch is whether Fenerbahce's habit of grinding out points at the free-throw line can survive a game where Panathinaikos' threes keep falling, because these two have been separated by single digits for years.
Start with how each team has won so far, from the match records in our DB (results are still marked provisional). Panathinaikos beat Paris 91-72, Lyon-Villeurbanne 102-79 and Maccabi Tel Aviv 90-67. Against Maccabi they took 39 threes and made 15; against Lyon it was 13 of 26. Fenerbahce beat Virtus Bologna 78-68, Bayern 100-76 and Dubai 76-66. The Virtus game shows the other side of them: 3 of 21 from three, but 27 of 34 at the line. Against Bayern they did make 15 of 30 from deep, so this is not a team that can't shoot, more one that has a plan B.
The quarter split is where the two profiles meet. Both open fast (Panathinaikos average 27 in the first quarter, Fenerbahce 26.7), so I wouldn't expect the opening ten minutes to separate them. Fenerbahce's own scoring dips in the second quarter (about 17 a game), while Panathinaikos have conceded around 25 a game in the fourth quarter, with Paris getting 28 in that stretch even in a 19-point defeat. If the first half is level, the question becomes whether Panathinaikos' late-game defence holds against a team that is happy to get to the line.
The history says to expect a tight finish. The last five meetings in our records finished 83-85, 77-81, 82-76, 91-90 and 76-81 (home team listed first), so none was decided by more than 6 points, and the home side won only two of those five.
Caveats: this is three Euroleague games each against opponents of mixed quality, and the data feed gave us no confirmed absences or coach notes for this match, so a rotation change could move any of this.
