Palmeiras carry a 2-1 lead into this return leg, but the thing I keep coming back to is their back line: our absence list has two defenders suspended (Giay and Gomez) and Jefte out with a knee injury. Fluminense dominated the first leg and still lost, because they could not turn a lot of the ball into shots. So the question is whether a patched Palmeiras defence gives them the chances they lacked in Rio.
The first leg, per Diário do Grande ABC: Fluminense had around 70% of the ball in the first half and reached the area many times without finishing well. Palmeiras scored with their first dangerous attack, Flaco López from a Piquerez cross, then Marlon Freitas made it 2-0 on 40 minutes in the second half. A goalkeeping error in stoppage time let Wesley Natã head in a late goal for Fluminense, so the tie is still alive. The same report notes Palmeiras only need a draw at home to reach the final.
Fluminense's side is not simple either. Our records list Guilherme Arana (suspended), Germán Cano, Alisson, John Kennedy and Matheus Reis as out, which takes away both a left-sided supplier and most of the penalty-box presence that Rio's possession lacked. If their wide play is going to hurt a rebuilt Palmeiras back four, it will have to come from players who weren't in that finishing problem to begin with. They also lost 1-2 to Santos at home in the league three days after the first leg.
I'd watch two things: how early Fluminense commit numbers forward, since Palmeiras were happiest hitting them on the break last week, and whether the replacements at centre-back (our list names Barboza and Murilo as alternatives) get tested by crosses early. Lineups aren't confirmed in our data yet, so this is a read on shape, not a prediction.
