These two matches share one theme: changed back lines that the opponent knows how to attack. In Paderborn, Stuttgart's stand-in right-back and cup goalkeeper face the side that out-shot them in the same stadium three weeks ago. In Monza, both defences are patched together in the same week, and each attack has its own way to reach them.
Paderborn against Stuttgart first. Stuttgart will have the ball and push down the left with Fuehrich and Mittelstaedt, and Paderborn defend in a back five and go long. The league meeting at this ground on 10-10 ended 0-2, but Paderborn took 24 shots to Stuttgart's 18, nearly all after half-time. Stuttgart's second goal came only in the 83rd minute, right after Paderborn's best spell. Hoeness said himself that his side gave the ball away too fast once they led.
This week has changed the units Paderborn attack. Vagnoman, the right-back Obermair beat in that game, is injured. Assignon steps in, and Gladbach's right side picked him apart five days ago. The cup keeper Bredlow replaces the league keeper, which matters against long balls and second balls in the box. Stuttgart's finishing has also gone cold: three goals from almost five expected in their last three. Paderborn are missing Klaas and Batista Meier from their bench, but Philippe, the late winner against HSV, is available.
The flow I expect is Stuttgart control for an hour, then Paderborn press higher after the break, which is their window. In a knockout game a level score late has extra time ahead of it, so nobody has to throw bodies forward. That's why I'm siding with Paderborn to keep this tight.
Now Monza against Napoli. Napoli will carry the ball and Monza will sit in their back three and hunt midfield turnovers. Napoli's defence is improvised for the second game running. Buongiorno, Spinazzola and Badiashile are out, Badiashile having gone off injured against Roma, Rrahmani is just back from a fever, and Di Lorenzo is reported rested. Napoli have been giving up around 18 shots a game and keep letting leads slip. Roma came back twice, and Bodo scored twice after going behind.
Monza have scored in each of their last ten, including twice at Torino from very little. Their own stand-in back three was beaten by crosses at Torino, which is exactly how Napoli score, with McTominay and Anguissa arriving in the box. Napoli did draw a blank at Venezia, but that came from poor finishing on plenty of chances, not from having no way through. That's why I'm siding with goals at both ends in Monza.
