FC Tokyo are the side that controls territory and turns it into accurate shots, while Okayama are a lower-possession team that concedes far more on target than it creates. The gap is in shot quality, not just volume, and it shows in how rarely Tokyo have conceded lately.
Tokyo sit second with a big goal difference, averaging more than five shots on target a game against under three allowed. They kept clean sheets in nine of their last ten, and their recent big wins came with eleven and eight shots on target. Okayama have lost four of their last five and give up almost five shots on target a game.
The key matchup is Tokyo's front line and full-backs against Okayama's back line. Okayama's only repeatable route is set pieces and counters, since they average about seven corners. Several Tokyo defenders carry doubtful flags, but those are unconfirmed squad flags and cover is named.
Expect Tokyo to dominate the ball, score first and force Okayama to open up, leaving room for a second on the break. That's why I'm siding with FC Tokyo to win by a clear margin away from home.
