NEC press high and feed their forwards from wide areas. Groningen can answer with a longer first pass and a right-channel receiver. Genoa want more control but have not made many recent shots on target. Venezia's compact midfield can move the first pass toward Adams.
NEC scored four at Zagreb but allowed ten shots on target, then returned to a short recovery. Groningen's Rente-led route and Clement-Willumsson combination produced chances even against Ajax. NEC's Tadić and central defensive absences continued through Zagreb; Groningen's core attacking roles played Ajax, while its other absences mainly reduce depth. I expect NEC to claim stretches of territory and Groningen to find escape passes into the space behind. That's why I'm siding with Groningen to resist the home pressure.
Genoa's early Fiorentina goals included an opponent error, and their chase at Roma produced only one shot on target. Venezia found a Sohm-to-Adams outlet in their newer shape, even as Napoli generated heavy pressure against them. Squad returns for both clubs mean selection options, not a proven upgrade to the last pass. I expect Genoa to seek early territory and Venezia to carry the ball beyond the first press. That's why I'm siding with Venezia to avoid defeat.
