New Zealand against India is a meeting of two back lines that both changed this week. New Zealand will have the ball and aim it at Chris Wood, while India sit deep and look to break. India arrive without their whole experienced defensive spine, and New Zealand's own defence has been patched together with late call-ups. That makes this less a story of the favourite against the outsider and more a story of which rebuilt defence holds up.
New Zealand are at their best when Wood is the target in the box and the wide players feed him. Away in China they took twelve of their thirteen shots from inside the box and won comfortably. But they concede when the back line is stretched or rotated. They conceded in nine of their last ten matches, including two goals with a rotated side against Palestine.
India under Khalid Jamil play a compact block and spend long spells without the ball. Their chance creation is thin, but they still find a goal at this level. They scored against Panama, twice against Tajikistan and even against Uruguay. Their goals come from Ryan Williams and Manvir Singh running into space, and from Anirudh Thapa shooting from distance.
The absences shape both halves of the match. India are without Anwar Ali, Sandesh Jhingan and Rahul Bheke, and Gurpreet Singh Sandhu has been left out of goal. That leaves a young centre-back pairing to deal with Wood and a stream of crosses, which is New Zealand's clearest route to goal. On the other side, Tyler Bindon withdrew this week, Cacace is not in the squad, and a 38-year-old and a 21-year-old were brought in as cover. With a second meeting a few days later, the coach has also said he will spread the minutes.
I expect New Zealand to control the first hour and most likely break through from a cross or a set piece. Once they lead, India have to come out a little. Around the hour the changes start, and India's runners get to face an unfamiliar back line with more space to attack. Bazeley's farewell and the first home match since the World Cup also push New Zealand to attack and entertain, rather than sit on a lead.
That's why I'm siding with goals at both ends. New Zealand should find a way past India's young defence, and India have a real one-goal route into a New Zealand back line rebuilt this week.
