New England against Inter Miami looks like a game with space in it. Both defences give up a lot of chances, both teams are comfortable in transition, and neither side has anything to play for except the result. Portland against Houston is the opposite shape: one side creates volume and the other absorbs and waits.
In Foxborough, Miami will hold the ball and New England will attack the space behind them. Over the last ten league games New England averages about 1.6 expected goals for and 1.7 against, and Miami about 1.5 for and 1.9 against. Add those up on either side and you land well above three goals of chance quality per game. New England also concedes plenty of corners and has scored from the penalty spot several times.
Miami are missing Silvetti, Allende and Caicedo, but all three were out for most of the recent games too, so the recent numbers already include their absence. Messi and Suarez remain, against a New England back line that has given up big chance counts in several recent matches. I expect an open match once the first goal goes in, and that's why I'm on the goals here.
In Portland, the Timbers take more shots than Houston, about 14.6 against 12.2, and their chance numbers are slightly positive while Houston's are negative. Houston's last win came from a 1-0 at Seattle on very few chances, and its unbeaten run has been built on draws from even games. Houston's first-choice goalkeeper has been out for weeks, so the backup is the normal state, while Portland is thin at centre-back.
Portland has the volume to beat a backup keeper, and Houston's attack makes under one expected goal a game. Houston is draw-prone, so I'm siding with Portland in a way that returns the stake if it ends level.
