Two Champions League nights with very different shapes. In Naples the ball and the shots belong to one side, while the visitors will sit deep and try to live off very few chances. At Anfield both teams want the ball and both leave space behind a high line, so goals at both ends are the natural outcome.
Napoli v Bodo/Glimt. Napoli are the volume side that is not finishing: 2.44 xG for no goals at Venezia and 1.87 xG for one goal at Villarreal, and just one goal in two Champions League games. Bodo's only European road row against a top side was at Bayern, where they had 34% possession, 3 shots and 0.30 xG. They come to Naples on the third game in eight days, with Evjen, Mikkelsen and Sjong already missing in each of their last three matches, and Blomberg doubtful after coming off at half-time on 10-17.
The likely flow is Napoli on the ball, a lot of corners and blocked shots, and Bodo trying to get through the first half level and scoring only from a counter or set piece. If Napoli score first the typical finish is a one- or two-goal home win, which is a low-scoring shape. That's why I'm siding with fewer goals here: Bodo's attack has too little to work with away from home, and Napoli's problem is conversion, not chance creation.
Liverpool v Villarreal. Liverpool score in bursts, with 8 goals in two Champions League games including 6-3 at LASK, but they have conceded in 7 of their last 10. Both right-backs are out, Bradley with a knee problem and Frimpong, who hurt a muscle at Brentford on 10-17. Szoboszlai, their main creator and set-piece taker, is out too, so the right side of the back line is a makeshift pairing. Isak and Gakpo are available again and the front line is close to full strength.
Villarreal have had 15 to 21 shots in each of their last three games and scored three at home against Napoli from a mix of a back-pass interception, a long shot and a late substitute goal. They concede almost every week, 15 in 10, which keeps the game open. If Liverpool score first, Villarreal have to chase against the pace of Isak and Barcola, and that stretches Liverpool's own back line. If it stays level to the hour, a game of two or three goals with chances at both ends fits. That's why I'm siding with both teams getting on the scoresheet at Anfield.
