Porto against PSV is a rested home side with a bench that wins games against a tired visitor with no fit striker. Napoli against Bodo/Glimt is a match with a real scoring route at both ends, not one side controlling both boxes. In both games the second half is where the picture should show.
Porto have had a full week off. PSV played at Den Haag three days ago and have Feyenoord next. PSV still keep the ball, but they have conceded heavily after half-time away from home, and all three of their recent defeats came from goals after the 55th minute. More importantly, every centre-forward is gone: Pepi, Lammers, Plea and Ouaissa are all out, and Schouten is missing in midfield. That leaves possession without anyone in the box, and a 17-year-old as the attacking option off the bench.
The matchup that matters comes after the hour. Porto can bring on Samu, Pietuszewski and Gimenez, who scored or nearly scored late at Betis and Maritimo. PSV's bench is mostly teenagers. Losing William Gomes takes one wide outlet from Porto, but their goals come mainly from midfield runners like Veiga and Froholdt breaking into the gaps Schouten leaves. Once Porto are ahead, PSV have to chase without a striker, and the counters open up. That's why I'm backing Porto to win this one clearly.
In Naples, Napoli will have the ball. Against teams that sit off them they produce a lot of shots: 29 at Venezia and a huge chance total against Frosinone. Bodo are without Evjen in midfield, so they are more likely to drop deep, and that is exactly the kind of block Napoli carve open. Their blank at Venezia came from bad finishing, not a lack of chances.
At the other end, Napoli are without Buongiorno and Favasuli, right where Bodo attack, in transition and down the flanks. Napoli's build-up has cracked under pressure, as it did with three goals conceded at Villarreal, and they have conceded in four of their last six. Bodo's 5-0 loss at Bayern was goalless at half-time and only opened up after their keeper was hurt. Last season they scored twice away at both Dortmund and Atletico. Whoever scores first, the other side has to open up. That's why I'm on goals at both ends in Naples.
