Two western matches where the midfield is the weak point. Minnesota and Sporting KC both defend badly right now, and Minnesota have lost both first-choice holding midfielders. Vancouver come home as West leaders but without the ball-winner who anchors their press, against a San Diego side that keeps the ball and creates far more than its results suggest. Neither game looks like the tidy home win the table points to.
In Saint Paul, both teams have conceded 2.6 goals a game over their last ten. Sporting KC have the worst defence in the league, with three centre-backs injured, and that same patched unit just conceded nine goals in three games. They still score, though, getting on the board in eight of their last ten through Andre Luiz and Afrifa on the break. Minnesota are without Trapp and Stroud, so Gene and Triantis form the screen. That pair held Houston to almost nothing away from home, but this is a home game Minnesota have to win to keep faint playoff hopes alive. That means more bodies forward and more room behind. Yeboah and the wide runners should find chances against Sporting KC's back line, Caldeira has a habit of late goals off the bench, and Sporting KC fade late. I expect an open, end-to-end game with goals at both ends.
In Vancouver, Müller is back from injury, but the Whitecaps' margin has been missing for six weeks. On their five-game road trip they never created much, and they rarely win by more than a goal. Cubas, who played most of the last game, has now been ruled out by Sørensen, and Sabbi went off injured on the same night. That takes the ball-winning pivot and a transition runner out of a team about to face a side that has kept around 60 percent of the ball in recent games. San Diego under Varas create about two goals' worth of chances a game. Bakambu, Dreyer and Pirani all played last time. Their problem is conceding, not scoring, which is why they draw so often. Vancouver may still win, but against that possession, and without Cubas to win the ball back, a comfortable home rout is hard to see. That's why I'm siding with San Diego to keep this close.
