Mainz's back three and Leverkusen's patient wide build-up should make the first pass after each recovery important. Leverkusen can deliver to Schick from the flanks, while Becker gives Mainz a direct route into the space those advances leave. Restarts and second balls should matter as much as either team's possession.
Mainz have used Becker's runs and Tietz's hold-up play to move from a recovery into the box. They have also scored four league goals from set pieces. Leverkusen's wide service is productive too: Gutiérrez crossed for Schick against Leipzig, and their runners give Mainz's central defenders more than one player to track.
Sano and Amiri need to win the ball and find Becker before Leverkusen reset, with Tietz available for the next pass or delivery. At the other end, Mainz's back three and Schwolow face Schick's movement and Gutiérrez's crossing. Mainz are without Zentner and Kohr, but the back three have played together recently and Schwolow made useful saves at Gladbach. Leverkusen's Maza has had a fitness check, so his role in connecting midfield to Schick is still an expected one.
I expect Leverkusen to have stretches of territory, with Mainz pressing selectively and using direct releases and dead balls for their best chances. Augsburg showed that Leverkusen can allow a central attack and a corner chance after a long spell of pressure. That's why I'm siding with Mainz at home.
