Two matches here where each side's attack meets the other's weaker half. Newcastle and Everton played each other four days earlier with almost the same line-ups, and both ends made chances. Lorient's tight block has only kept out teams that want the ball, and Brest are not that kind of team. In both games the attacks on each side have a route to goal that has already been measured.
Newcastle against Everton first. Newcastle under Jaissle make plenty of chances but convert few of them: 28 shots, 9 on target and 3.34 xG at Everton in the cup, for one goal. Everton under Moyes sit in a mid block and break. They scored three in that game from a pressing turnover on Dedic, a counter after a Pickford catch and a move finished by Barry. Newcastle give up around 1.4 to 1.6 xG to every mid-table side, and Everton create 1.6 to 2.2 xG against anyone who isn't a top side.
The absences barely change this. Jaouen and Livramento have been out for weeks, so the recent numbers were already made without them. If Osula misses out, Wissa comes in, and he raised the volume when he came on in the cup. Grealish didn't play in Everton's last two games either. The one new thing is Branthwaite's return, which helps Everton against crosses but not against cut-backs.
The first goal is the hinge. If Everton score first, Newcastle throw on Elanga, Joelinton and Wissa and leave space behind them. If Newcastle score first, Everton have to come out. Newcastle's home games have rarely stayed tight (2-2 with Bournemouth, 2-2 with Liverpool, 2-1 with Hull), and the last three meetings between these two all had four goals. That's why I'm siding with goals in this one.
Lorient against Brest is a clash of roles. Lorient under Dujeux give up the ball and defend in a back three. Their three straight clean sheets came against possession sides like Nice, Lens, Paris FC and Monaco. The direct sides that played them, Troyes, Le Mans and Toulouse, scored twice each. Brest are direct: Ajorque is the target man, with Doumbia, Mboup and Baldé running behind him. They have scored in seven of eight league games and in all four away games, usually early.
At the other end, Lorient have scored in every home game, mostly after half-time, often through the bench or a penalty. Brest have conceded in all eight league games, seven times after the break. Their centre-back pair of Tousart and Lloris has played the last three games and conceded in each of them. Katseris is out again for Lorient, but he missed their last two games as well, so nothing new there.
The likely flow is Brest pushing early and Lorient finding their goal later, when legs tire at the back for the visitors. Whichever side ends up with the ball, the matchup gives both a way to score. That's why I'm siding with both of them finding the net.
