Liverpool's press should test Chelsea's first pass throughout this cup tie. Chelsea have pace to attack behind that press, so the first clean shot after a turnover carries weight. The teams' previous cup games also show how changes in the second half can alter the attacking shape.
Liverpool's heavily changed cup side still won the ball high and found separate finishes through Mac Allister and Gakpo. Chelsea needed Palmer's introduction to repair a slow start against Leeds, while their latest attack struggled to connect even with him playing. João Pedro is now out after missing Tottenham, and Palmer is suspended after playing that match; Emegha has returned to the squad but has yet to play. Liverpool's listed absentees also missed Brighton, leaving the press and wide finishers seen in the earlier cup game as the useful comparison.
Liverpool can turn an early recovery into a quick ball toward Gakpo or a Mac Allister arrival. Chelsea's Neto and Rogers can carry the response, but Liverpool have shown the clearer route to the first and next clean finish in this rotation setting. That's why I'm siding with Liverpool to win.
