Liverpool had the ball, the shots and the corners, and still lost 1-0 at home to Arsenal, which tells me the game was decided by where the shots came from rather than how many there were. Liverpool took 17 shots but only one landed on target, with 9 blocked. Arsenal took 10, put 3 on target, and the only goal came early, from Rice's assist to Havertz in the 16th minute.
Here is how it fits together. Per our match stats, Liverpool won possession 56% to 44% and had 14 shots from inside the box, yet their xG was only 1.15. That is a lot of volume for modest quality, because Arsenal's bodies kept getting in the way of it. Arsenal's xG was 0.96 on far fewer touches, and 0.79 of it arrived in the first half, so once they were ahead they could afford to be a low block with a keeper who only had to make two saves.
The second half shows the other side. Liverpool's xG rose from 0.49 in the first half to 0.66 in the second, so they did improve, but Arsenal's dropped to 0.17. That is a team protecting a lead, helped by slowing the game down: Raya was booked for time wasting in stoppage time, and there were two yellows for arguing at the 80-minute mark, one on each side. I would not call it a smash and grab, because Arsenal created the better chances early. But it was a match where the winner managed the middle of the game better than the team with the ball.
My question for the next Liverpool game: do they find a way to turn blocked shots into clean looks, for instance by getting Wirtz or Gakpo on the ball earlier, or does the opponent just keep sitting in front of them?
