This rescheduled game puts two pressing sides, both with shaky build-ups, on the same pitch. Bilbao's recent run of tight, low-event draws came against opponents who sat deep and handed them the ball. Levante at home do the opposite: they press, they run, and their home games have been open on content, not just on the scoreline.
Under Terzic, Bilbao keep the ball, defend with a very high line and concede little. Their problem is finishing: over their last three games they made plenty of chances and scored once. But Alaves, Elche and Valencia all had a third of the ball or less against them. Levante under Luis Castro are a different kind of opponent. They scored five against Betis, two against Barcelona and three against Sevilla at home, and each of those matches produced big chance totals at both ends. Terzic himself said Levante feel very comfortable pressing at home.
The key matchups run both ways. Bilbao's press against Levante's build-up, which gives the ball away under pressure, should hand Bilbao short central chances that don't need a classic number nine. At the other end, Levante's direct runners, Ivan Romero and Brugue, go at the space behind Bilbao's high line. Even in Bilbao's last clean sheet at Valencia, the closing stretch was full of transitions in Terzic's own words.
The absences matter, but less than the headlines suggest. Guruzeta's knee injury and Sancet's absence take away Bilbao's finisher and their link at number ten. They do not take away the press, the arrivals of Navarro, Berenguer and Canales, or Inaki Williams. Levante's midfield absentees already missed the last two games, so their recent form shows this exact group.
The first goal should open it up whichever way it falls. If Bilbao go ahead, Levante have to come out, and they have kept scoring at home even when behind. If Levante score first, Bilbao push their line higher still and leave more room for runners. Neither side is in a position to settle for a point.
That's why I'm siding with goals in this match: Levante's home pattern and two presses meeting two fragile build-ups weigh more for me than Bilbao's control numbers, which were built against much more passive opponents.
