Two Champions League Elite games where the side that has looked better in this competition is at home against a squad stretched by travel and injuries. Kyoto have conceded once in two ACL games, and Newcastle have leaked chances to every Japanese side they have met. Daejeon have choked both of their ACL opponents, while Kobe arrive tired, patched up and talking openly about a point. Neither game should be wide open early; the second halves are where things should swing.
Kyoto under Ranko Popovic are a reactive side. They give up the ball, sit in a mid-block and score through wide delivery and runners. Haruki Arai has three of their last six goals, mostly from late crosses and second balls. In this competition they beat Ratchaburi at home and allowed almost nothing. Newcastle like the ball in the A-League, but Gamba and Kashima both carved them open, with 24 shots and more than two expected goals each.
The key battle is Kyoto's wide service against a Newcastle back line that will be reshuffled. Cooper and Fryer are out, Clough and Badolato did not travel, and the club itself said several changes were coming after a short turnaround and a long flight. Teenagers are in the travelling squad. That means a younger midfield and less depth to chase a game.
I expect Newcastle to have more of the ball early and Kyoto to keep it level and quiet into half-time. After that the fresher legs and Kyoto's bench (Elias, Tulio, Kato, Souza) should tell. Kyoto have scored late in three straight games. That's why I'm siding with Kyoto to win this one.
Daejeon under Hwang Sun-hong win ACL games by controlling territory. At home to Kyoto they had 17 shots to 1, and in Shanghai they kept the hosts to very little on only a third of the ball. Their bench forwards decide games: Diogo and Ludwigson both came on at half-time at Gimcheon and both scored. Kobe are the most energetic, direct side in J1, built on duels, Diego's long throws and runs from Osako and Muto. Lately they have been giving up a lot of shots, and Gonda has had to bail them out.
The matchup that worries Daejeon is Kobe's direct and aerial game against their centre-backs. Gwangju scored twice in Daejeon from a long throw and a long goal kick. The matchup that favours Daejeon is down Kobe's right side, where three regular full-backs have had problems and a 20-year-old has been filling in. Reports say Kobe travelled with youth players and that Skibbe's target is at least a point.
Expect a cagey first half with Kobe at their sharpest early. As Kobe tire and Daejeon's substitutes come on in front of their home crowd, the territory should tilt. Gonda is good enough to hold a draw on his own, so I'm siding with Daejeon, with the draw covered.
