Niigata have a direct route into the channels, with a second attacker arriving to finish the move. Kofu's harder task is getting support close to their forward after winning the ball. That difference in how the teams connect their attacks matters more here than their positions in the table.
Kato's longer pass toward Wakatsuki gives Niigata a way past the first pressure. Castilho can then attack the finishing space, while Shirai and the supporting midfield help keep the next attack alive. Kofu have shown a separate route through Sato's corners and the second ball, but their coach identified poor recovery passes and missing forward support against Imabari.
Endo is suspended for this match after starting Kofu's previous game, so the back three must change. Niigata's Moraes left that same round injured, with his clearance still unconfirmed, but Castilho came on and scored. The attacking connection was demonstrated with the replacement already on the pitch.
I expect Niigata to keep testing the channels and Kofu's handovers as the match develops. Repeated clearances can bring further attacks when Kofu cannot retain an outlet. That's why I'm siding with Albirex Niigata to win.
