Kitchee against Phnom Penh Crown looks like possession running into a deep block. Neither side has shown in this competition that it can make that open. Machida against Shanghai Shenhua is a defend-first home side against a visitor that has lost part of its supply line and now has to chase. Both games are about which routes are still there, not about names.
Kitchee keep the ball in this competition but get little from it: one goal in three matches, with two to four shots on target a game. Crown sit deep and score late. All six of their goals in the group came from just before half-time onwards, and Moses Dyer scored three of them and took the penalty. Dyer did not travel, and Crown arrive on a short turnaround after travel and a ten-man match at home. They top the group, so a draw suits them and they have every reason to keep the block. Every game these two have played in this competition, including their first meeting, stayed low. I expect long spells of Kitchee possession against a tired block and a game that stays tight. That's why I'm siding with a low-scoring match in Hong Kong.
In Shanghai a week ago, Machida had most of the ball away from home, allowed three shots on target and won with a goal from a cleared corner. Since then Shenhua have lost Chen Jinyi, their main left-side outlet, for the season, are still without Zhu Chenjie at the back and left other injured players at home. Machida's defensive core came off the bench at the weekend, so it is fresh. Shenhua sit third and need points, which pulls them into Machida's transitions and set pieces. Machida's own finishing has gone quiet lately, so this may well be decided by one goal. Even so, the home side controls the mesh, and that's why I'm backing Machida to win at home.
