This is not a slump-versus-streak game. It is the third game of a best-of-five second-round series that stands at one win each, played at the home park of the Tigers. The old form strings mix a regular-season tail with a playoff phase, so they say little now; what matters is who starts, who is left in the bullpen, and who has the home crowd.
The starter matchup is the cleanest edge. The Tigers' right-hander Shirakawa carries a modest season ERA, but against Samsung he has been much better across three games, and in his playoff debut he struck out nine over five innings against LG. Samsung's Choi Won-tae has been hit hard by this lineup this year, with a very high ERA across three starts, and Kim Do-young has handled him well. These are small samples, so I treat them as a lean rather than a certainty.
Samsung's back end looks thinner than normal. Their closer is reported out with a muscle issue, and a starter had to close the second game. The Tigers' bullpen did walk three in a row in that game, and Samsung's lineup, with veteran Choi Hyoung-woo, showed it can break through for a big inning. Lineup cards are not out yet, and Gu Ja-wook's hamstring is a question for Samsung's DH spot.
I expect Shirakawa to go five or six innings and Samsung to turn to its pen by the middle of the game. If the Tigers get Choi Won-tae out early and hand the late innings to a pen that is intact against one that is short a closer, they should win. That is why I'm siding with the Tigers at home, backing them to win by more than a single run.
