Three matches, three structures. Kashima's volume against a deep block meets a Pohang side that concedes plenty of shots and creates little. Persib and Victory are two cautious sides, one tired and one weakened in attack, with a table that rewards a draw. In the cup, Tosu's home set pieces and Kawasaki's wide attack each have a route that the other side does not block.
Kashima Antlers v Pohang. Under Oniki, Kashima keep the ball and shoot in volume. They have repeated this against deep blocks, with nineteen shots and a dominant display at Kyoto and twenty-five shots against Kashiwa. Pohang are a reactive side. They allow plenty of shots, have scored only from a penalty in this competition and have conceded twelve in their last six away games. Their realistic route is Nishiya's corners towards Kim Seung-ho, or a regain if Kashima's centre-back pair changes because of Kim Tae-hyeon's knee. If Kashima score early, Pohang have to come out, and their losses in this competition show the second goal follows. I'm with Kashima to win clearly.
Persib Bandung v Melbourne Victory. Persib have won all three of their games in this competition 1-0 without conceding, with their goals from a corner and a penalty. Their centre-backs, led by Julio Cesar, are intact, although the goalkeeper is new and Klok is likely missing in midfield. Victory left May, their scorer in this competition, at home along with the captain, D'Arrigo and a starting full-back to protect their league game. A draw keeps both teams in the top two, and Persib are on their third game in seven days. I expect a set piece, a penalty or one transition to decide it, so I'm siding with a low-scoring game.
Sagan Tosu v Kawasaki Frontale. Kawasaki's away attack is the sharpest part of their profile. Their rotated cup side scored four at Iwata in the last round, and they have scored in every one of their last ten. Tosu's route does not need to beat Kawasaki in open play. At home they win corners in bulk, their centre-backs have been scoring, and they beat two J1 sides in this competition, scoring twice each time. Kawasaki let opponents shoot, Okayama took twenty shots against them days ago, and a rotated back line adds to Tosu's set-piece chances. In a knockout tie, whoever scores first forces the other side to push, so I'm siding with goals at both ends.
