Two J1 matches played in the rain, and both come down to which side's style suits a wet, duel-heavy afternoon. At Noevir, Kobe's core is on its fourth game in about ten days with a thinned right side, while Machida's league XI skipped the continental trip. At Kashima, a direct, cross-heavy home side meets an opponent whose two known weak spots are exactly the balls Kashima like to play.
Kobe v Machida is a second-ball fight between two direct teams. Kobe's starters played Jeonbuk, Okayama and Kawasaki inside eight days and go to Daejeon three days after this match. Machida rested most of their league side on their continental trip and eased off in the last half hour at Shimizu.
The key matchup is Kobe's right flank. Sakai withdrew before the Kawasaki game and Iino came off there with a suspected concussion, so a stand-in is likely to face Soma's and Ouwejan's crosses aimed at Ogawa, who won five aerials and had eight shots at Shimizu. Erik, who started Kobe's last two games, is reported unavailable against his former club.
Kobe's best moment is early: Diego's long throws and corners in the rain could produce a goal. But Machida's back line and Tani are strong in the air, and Machida have allowed fewer than two shots on target a game recently. From around the hour, fresher legs should tell. That's why I'm siding with Machida not to lose this one.
Kashima v Kashiwa pits Kashima's vertical passes and wide delivery against Kashiwa's possession game. After the FC Tokyo match, Konishi himself said Kashiwa struggled against vertical passes from the centre-backs and expected Kashima to try the same. Kashiwa have also conceded two or more in seven of their last ten, often from crosses and set pieces.
At home Kashima defend their box very well, with only six conceded in ten home games and Kim Tae-hyeon and Ueda dominant in the air. Léo Ceará went off injured last time out, but Kashima's cross route runs more through the delivery than through him. Rain should hurt Kashiwa's build-up more than Kashima's direct play, and Kashiwa fly to Thailand straight after. I'm backing Kashima, with a draw not costing the stake.
