Two English matches where the way the styles meet matters more than the league table. Middlesbrough have out-created nearly everyone and dropped points only through cheap early goals, while Bolton's results at home have run behind their chances against good sides. At Portman Road, Forest's away games have been open every time a host came at them, and Ipswich's coach says that is exactly what his side will do. In both, the shape of the game points clearly in one direction.
Bolton v Middlesbrough. Hellberg's Boro push both full-backs high, get McGree and Cozier-Duberry between the lines and let Lankshear pin the centre-backs. Over ten games they average about 18 shots to 11 and twice the xG of their opponents, and they have scored in nine of the ten. Their draws came from conceding cheaply early, then chasing. Bolton have one home win in four, lost even against ten-man Stoke, and conceded 1.8 to 2.2 xG against Southampton, Wolves, Cardiff and West Ham.
Bolton's real route is the counter: Rodrigues carrying the ball behind Boro's high full-backs towards Dalby and Gale. The wind before half-time helps that direct game. But Boro's second halves are their strongest phase: they scored after the break in each of their recent draws, and Hellberg's changes turned the Cardiff game. Boro's absences (Alfie Jones, Strelec) are weeks old and already inside that form. That's why I'm siding with Middlesbrough to win.
Ipswich v Forest. Glasner's Forest are a low back five that jumps forward the moment it wins the ball. At home, where opponents let them have it, their games have been tight. Away, at Liverpool, Villa and Palace, they made 2.3 to 3.0 xG every time, and every one of those games had at least three goals. O'Neil has said Ipswich won't defend low here. Ipswich concede about two xG a game, score roughly to their chances, and have a bench that has scored late against Sunderland and Fulham.
The key mesh is Ipswich's wing-backs, Davis and Ouattara, against Forest's runners: when Davis goes high, Delap holds the ball up and Gibbs-White, declared fit, and Ndoye run into the channel behind him. At the other end, Ipswich can cross into Forest's back five. Lukic's absence for Ipswich and Igor Jesus's for Forest were both already there in the last two games, so nothing new tilts it.
Whoever scores first, the other side has to come out, and in this matchup that means more space, not less. That's why I'm expecting goals at both ends of this one.
