Indiana against Dallas comes down to the middle of the floor. Dallas arrive without Lively and Aldama, so they have a true centre only while Gafford is on the court, and Indiana's starting big plays most of the game. In Milwaukee, both starting pitchers line up against exactly what the other lineup relies on to score. Both bullpens behind them are fully rested.
Indiana first. Zubac played heavy minutes in the opener and pulled down 14 rebounds, while Dallas were outrebounded by nine at Houston with Gafford playing only around 21 minutes. In the rest of Dallas's minutes, Washington or Flagg slide to centre, and that is where Indiana can win the glass and get to the rim. Dallas have also been loose with the ball against three different opponents. With Irving on a light load, those turnovers come from the backup handlers.
Dallas do have answers. Flagg lives at the free-throw line, and Indiana's bench without McConnell had an ugly second quarter at New Orleans. But Dallas had their own second-quarter collapse at Houston when their bench was on, and their centre gap lasts longer than Indiana's guard gap. I expect Indiana's starters to build the margin in the first and third quarters, which is why I'm siding with Indiana to win clearly.
Now Milwaukee and Tampa Bay. Martinez walks almost nobody and leans on a sinker, and the Brewers manufacture runs through walks and long at-bats and have struggled against sinkers. Misiorowski's high-90s fastball meets a Rays lineup that has done almost nothing against that velocity and has hit .231 over its last ten.
Misiorowski's pitch count will probably get him out early. That hands the middle innings to a Brewers bullpen that has given up very little this postseason and has had a full week off. The Rays' bridge is thinner without Uceta, but it faces a lineup that needs free baserunners to string innings together. I expect a tight, low-scoring game, which is why I'm siding with the under on runs.
