Hiroshima arrive 4-0 and every one of those wins was by 11 or more, while Ibaraki are 0-4 and last in the East. What decides this for me is that the gap looks built rather than lucky: Hiroshima kept 13 players, have used the same starting five in all four games, and are making full use of the new rule that lets more imports share the floor. Ibaraki's own coach admitted his team lost its concentration midway through the last loss at Gunma.
The margins tell the story. Hiroshima have won by 13, 28, 23 and 11 in the league, with Saga and Kobe on the other side. Ibaraki have lost by 8, 6, 1 and 9, the last two at Gunma, who are also 4-0. Those were close-ish scores against a strong side, so this is not a team falling apart, but it is a team that keeps running out of gas after the break.
Hiroshima's coach says the big starting group is about defensive intensity first, with the Japanese players coming off the bench to settle things down. Dwayne Evans scored 30 in the last game after letting the other imports lead the scoring in the first three, which says the offence has more than one way to get going. Hiroshima ranked third in the league in scoring last season at 86.0 a game, so the attack is not new.
History points the same way as the early form: Hiroshima have won nine of the last ten meetings. Ibaraki do get the home floor, and I wanted to see that weigh against a run of results this one-sided, but the way both teams have been playing reads as real rather than a hot streak.
