[2026-27 German Bundesliga] Elversberg vs Augsburg: Match Preview Kick-off: October 17, 13:30 UTC
Elversberg and Augsburg meet at the Ursapharm Arena on October 17 at 13:30 UTC in the sixth round of the Bundesliga. Elversberg, playing its first season in the top flight, returns to league action at home after about five weeks. Augsburg travels after drawing with Bayern Munich. The sides are separated by one point, but they have dropped points in different ways recently, and their attacking strengths in this match differ.
1. Match overview and team form
Bundesliga record after five matches this season Positions and points: Elversberg 9th, 7 points / Augsburg 6th, 8 points Records: Elversberg 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses / Augsburg 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss Goals scored and conceded: Elversberg 8 and 8 / Augsburg 13 and 8
Elversberg scored seven goals in its first two matches, beating Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 and Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-3. It has scored just once across its three games since, against Bayern Munich, Schalke 04 and Union Berlin. In the opening matches, opponents came forward with the ball, giving Elversberg chances to win possession with its press or play quickly into space behind the defence. Schalke 04 and Union Berlin sat deeper, leaving Elversberg with more of the ball, and it failed to score in either match.
The two scoreless games were different in other respects. Against Schalke 04, Elversberg had 61% possession and 11 shots, but only one was on target. The opposing goalkeeper also made back-to-back saves from shots by Petkov and Lukas Pinkert. Against Union Berlin, Elversberg managed an expected goals figure of just 0.24, creating few chances. The available expected goals data covers only its last two away games, so it cannot establish the team's attacking level over the whole season. The clear pattern is that Elversberg has struggled with build-up play and its final pass when opponents have let it have the ball.
Augsburg has also gone three league games without a win, though it has led at some point in each match. It came from behind to lead against Bayer Leverkusen before conceding an 89th-minute equaliser. Away to Werder Bremen, it lost 3-2 after going 2-0 up. Against Bayern Munich, it went ahead twice and was pegged back both times. Its attack has kept producing: Augsburg has scored in all five league matches this season. Against Werder Bremen, Hennes Behrens won the ball, Fabian Rieder played Robin Fellhauer in behind, and Fellhauer finished. The issue has been how Augsburg manages games after taking the lead, dropping deeper and spending long periods defending.
Elversberg's home record needs to be put in context. It has won seven and lost three of its last 10 competitive home matches, scoring 23 and conceding 12, but most of those games came in the second division last season. Its only Bundesliga home matches this season were a win over Bayer Leverkusen and a loss to Bayern Munich. Both opponents came forward with the ball. Augsburg has won five, drawn one and lost four of its last 10 competitive away games. This season, it won 4-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt and lost 3-2 at Werder Bremen. The results at each team's venue do not, on their own, point to an advantage.
Elversberg faces major changes up front. Cole Campbell is out injured, and coach Wagner has said Francis Onyeka is also unlikely to play. Both contributed to Elversberg's early goals against Bayer Leverkusen. Onyeka linked up the move that led to Petkov's shot, while Campbell intercepted a defender's pass and scored. Maurice Krattenmacher could start, though all three of his league goals this season have come off the bench. Starting him would also change the attacking option Wagner has used as a substitute in the second half. David Mokwa, who has had an Achilles problem, could return. If he plays, Elversberg would have a centre-forward ready to run in behind again.
Augsburg will be without defender Noahkai Banks, with Zoma or Jeffrey Gouweleeuw expected to step in. Baah filled Banks' spot against Bayern Munich, but facing Elversberg's high press poses a different challenge. Alexis Claude-Maurice is also out. He assisted from a corner against Werder Bremen, though Rieder has also contributed goals from corners and free kicks this season. Marius Wolf, who has returned to training, and Seol Young-woo, who started against Bayern Munich, are options at right wing-back. Coach Manuel Baum has indicated he could make changes in several positions to match up with this opponent.
The teams' most recent competitive meeting was a DFB-Pokal match in 2015. Augsburg won 3-1 after extra time, but the coaches and players have changed, and Elversberg was playing at a different level. That result is of little use in assessing today's tactics. Both teams had seven days off after their last match, with no midweek game either side of this fixture. Injuries and choices made to suit the opponent are more likely to shape the starting line-ups than fixture congestion.
2. Match-up analysis
The early question is whether Elversberg can press Augsburg's defence as it plays out from the back. Elversberg took the lead early against Bayer Leverkusen by capitalising on a passing mistake. If Augsburg tries to build with short passes through Baah and goalkeeper Finn Gilbert Dahmen, the hosts may get a chance to win the ball in a similar area. Dahmen trained individually this week because of a muscle issue, but reports suggest he should be available. Since Augsburg's choice of build-up approach is not yet clear, his fitness alone is not enough to predict an error at the back.
Baum has another way to avoid the press. If Michael Gregoritsch returns to the starting line-up, Augsburg can play long to the striker and let Rieder and the players behind him contest the second ball. If Augsburg advances that way or gives up possession in a back five, Elversberg will have fewer chances to win the ball high up the pitch. The hosts would then need to play through Augsburg's defensive shape. That is relevant because Wagner criticised his team's easy losses of possession in build-up after the Schalke 04 match.
Augsburg's counter-attacks can punish those turnovers. For its opener against Werder Bremen, Behrens won the ball in midfield and Rieder immediately sent a pass into Fellhauer's run. If Elversberg holds onto the ball and then loses it in the same area, Behrens, Rieder and Fellhauer could break forward again. If Elversberg wins the ball with its first press, Augsburg will have to attack in possession instead. Elversberg can keep its defensive lines compact and look for the space left behind as Augsburg moves forward. The opening goal could change the roles both teams have to play.
The duel between Lukas Petkov and Behrens on the flank also matters. When Behrens pushes high, Petkov can run into the space behind him. If Petkov waits high for the ball, Behrens will also have to keep the defensive side of his game in mind. Petkov came through Augsburg's youth system and has started all five of Elversberg's league matches this season. On the other flank, the contest between Elversberg left-back Lasse Günther and Augsburg's right wing-back will depend in part on whether Wolf or Seol Young-woo starts. With Campbell and Onyeka unavailable, Elversberg has fewer options on the left, so where it can move the ball forward will matter.
Mokwa's availability is tied to Elversberg's attack after the press as well. If he plays, Elversberg has a target for passes behind Augsburg's back three. The prospect of that run could affect the defenders' decisions when stepping forward to challenge for the ball. If Mokwa is out, more of the runs in behind will fall to Petkov. Starting Krattenmacher would add a player with goals in him to the early attack, but leave Wagner with one fewer attacking option to bring on later.
Even if Augsburg scores first, the match would not be decided. It has let leads slip in its last three games, and against Werder Bremen it dropped deeper after going ahead and did not have another shot before half-time. This opponent, though, is not like those three teams that built chances through long spells of possession. Elversberg has failed to score in its two most recent games against sides that sat back, Schalke 04 and Union Berlin. If Augsburg continues to win the ball in midfield and counter after taking the lead, there is less reason to expect the same pattern of dropped points.
Substitutions and set pieces could matter late on. Wagner has tried to respond by adding forwards, while Baum has brought on defenders to protect leads in games where Augsburg still conceded. Elversberg's Keidel has scored from a free kick, but against Union Berlin the team gave the ball back after clearing a corner and conceded the winning goal. Augsburg can still use Rieder to take set pieces without Claude-Maurice, and Gregoritsch and Kelvin Braekelmann have scored with headers. Both teams have ways to threaten from dead balls when their open-play attacks are stalled.
3. Verdict and prediction
We favour an away win for Augsburg. Elversberg will likely press high early on, but if Augsburg responds with long passes to Gregoritsch or a deep defensive shape, the hosts could have plenty of the ball. Elversberg has recently struggled to build attacks and find the final pass when in possession, and Onyeka and Campbell, who were involved in that attack, are out or unlikely to feature. Augsburg still has Behrens and Rieder, who combined to win the ball in midfield and play Fellhauer in behind, as well as Rieder's set-piece delivery.
The market gives Elversberg a slight edge, reflecting home advantage, its opening two wins and its record of scoring in home league matches. Those home goals came against Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich, who both came forward with the ball. If Augsburg gives up possession and waits, Elversberg will face the same problem it could not solve in its last two away matches. We give that match-up more weight than the market, which is why we back the away win.
Our score prediction is 1-2 or 0-2. Augsburg could capitalise on Elversberg's midfield turnovers to take the lead, then look for another goal through the same route or one of Rieder's set pieces in the second half. If Elversberg pulls one back from a set piece or a late attack, 1-2 is the likelier score. If it cannot break down Augsburg's defence, 0-2 is closer. The outlook would change if Augsburg opts for short build-up and Elversberg scores first with its early press. Augsburg would then have to come forward with the ball, giving the hosts a chance to use the counter-attack they know well.
