Two matches with opposite shapes. In the cup in Hamburg, a deep, reactive HSV missing its creator meets a Frankfurt attack still searching for itself, and that points to a controlled, low-to-medium event game. In Turin, Como's possession game and Nico Paz meet a Torino midfield that has just lost the player who screened that exact zone.
Hamburg v Frankfurt. HSV under Polzin live with 34-40% of the ball. They sat in a deep 5-3-2 at Paderborn and depend on set pieces, second balls and late direct play. Now Vieira, their main creator, is out with a muscle tear, and Poulsen and Nadir are missing too, so their open-play route shrinks further. Frankfurt hold the ball, but their last two league games were 1-0 and 0-1, and Hutter himself calls the attack a work in progress. He is also rotating because these sides meet twice in five days.
The real question in Hamburg is HSV's new back three of Nandja, Bornauw and Omari, with back-up keeper Tangvik, against Frankfurt runners like Ebnoutalib and Knauff. HSV defending deep and narrow limits the space behind them. All four of the two sides' latest league games were goalless at half-time. Frankfurt's high-scoring games came earlier in the season, in open matches against strong attacks, not against a low block like this. A level score late also tilts both sides towards waiting for extra time. That's why I'm siding with a contained, lower-scoring game in Hamburg.
Torino v Como. Como under Fabregas average about 1.9 xG for and 1.2 against over their last ten, and Torino 1.3 and 1.4. Paz has scored or assisted in every game I read, and Como's goals against Utd and Fiorentina came without Kean, Diao or Rodriguez. Torino's three straight wins came against sides at their own level. The one stronger visitor this season, Roma, won 2-0 there with Torino held to 0.86 xG.
The key matchup is Paz in the pocket in front of Torino's back three. That was Mandragora's job, and he went off injured last time out and misses this one, so a younger screen, Gineitis or Fitz-Jim, steps in. Torino's best route is Belghali down the right against Como's high full-backs, and Como's legs on a fourth game in ten days are a real factor. But Saturday's half-time changes kept Ramon, Milla and Baturina fresh. That's why I'm siding with Como, protected against the draw.
