This is a rematch three days after a 0-0 that did not look like a 0-0. Suriname had 13 shots, eight of them on target, and Guatemala had two shots in total; the scoreline was kept alone by Guatemala's keeper, who made eight saves. What turns my read is what changed since: Guatemala now have to win to go through, while Suriname are happy with a draw.
Suriname's coach said in Guatemala City that he will not change the way they play. They like to hold the ball and build from the back, and he sees Guatemala as the side under more pressure. In the first game that style gave them 62 percent of the ball. A home side that has to chase the game tends to leave space behind, and that is where a patient, possession-heavy team gets its chances.
Guatemala are not an easy team to read, though. They have won every home game against Suriname, scoring three each time, and they beat El Salvador 6-0 at home in this group. But that El Salvador side put only one shot on target, and Guatemala's other recent results are mostly defeats away to stronger opponents, so the 6-0 says less about this game than it seems. They have also never won a final group match in this competition, and two of their key players, Aparicio and Santis, are carrying knocks.
Suriname have their own load to manage: this is their fourth match in 16 days and they changed five starters last time. Still, they come in unbeaten in the group with a win in Honduras, and the new coach has them organised. I took the view that the game state matters more than the home name here.
