Two games where the table and the matchup tell different stories. In Goyang against Seoul, the unbeaten side meets a home team that is a high-volume shooter but gives up the most inside points in the league. In Shinshu against Kyoto, a side that has just snapped a long losing run faces a team with a clear two-way efficiency edge.
Goyang Sono against Seoul Thunders: Goyang lives on three-point volume, the most attempts in the league, and its offence is the second highest scoring. Its weakness is the interior, where it allows the worst two-point shooting in the league. Seoul has the best defence and the best two-point shooting, built around Kanter inside. The first meeting was an 82-81 Seoul win on a last-second basket, and Seoul's wins have mostly been tight. Goyang is hurt by the officiating-error loss and will be motivated at home, but that is emotion and shooting variance, not structure. That's why I'm siding with Seoul to stay close or win.
Shinshu against Kyoto: Shinshu lost six straight before beating Kobe at home, and it allows nearly 89 a game, including a leaky fourth quarter. Kyoto is 8-2 in its last 10, allows about 77 a game and has a scoring margin above ten per game. Guard Shibuta is out with a hamstring injury, confirmed by the club, but Kyoto beat Akita 79-71 without him. Shinshu's best route is rebounding, which Kyoto itself admits, and a cold shooting night from Kyoto. I expect Kyoto's defence to control the game and pull away late. That's why I'm siding with Kyoto to win by a few possessions.
