Two games where the favourite's usual engine runs into the opponent best built to switch it off. Nagoya's huge winning margins come from forced turnovers, and Shiga are one of the most careful passing teams in the league. In Korea, Samsung's unbeaten run is built in the paint, and Sono have the league's weakest interior defence. In both games the matchup points to a closer finish than the headline records suggest.
Nagoya are 8-0 and lead the league in steals, forcing about 18.5 turnovers a game and scoring almost 23 points off them. Their two blowouts, by 29 and 30, came against teams that coughed it up 21 and 25 times. The one top-tier side that protected the ball, Tokyo Sunrockers with 10 turnovers, lost by only 11, and Nagoya needed a big fourth quarter to get there. Five of their eight wins were by 10-12 points, even against bottom-half teams.
Shiga lead the league in assists and turned it over only 9-15 times across ten box scores. Against top sides they lost by 1 at Kyoto, 6 at Hiroshima and 7 to Tokyo SR. The 28 Oct injury list shows no Shiga absences, and Nagoya's only absentee has been out all season. The key window is early in the third quarter, when Nagoya's steals peak. If Shiga's passing holds there, Nagoya have to win a half-court game with modest three-point shooting. That's why I'm siding with Shiga keeping this within range on the road.
In Goyang, Samsung come in 8-0 on defence and Kerem Kanter, the league's top scorer. They allow a league-low 77.3 points, shoot a league-best 59.7% on twos and rarely give the ball away. Sono allow 62.5% on twos, the worst mark in the league, so Samsung's main weapon hits Sono's weakest unit. Sono's main weapon, about 40 threes a game, runs into the stingiest defence in the league.
We've already seen this shape. On 11 Oct Sono made 17 threes against Samsung and still lost 82-81, because Samsung went to the line and finished inside. Samsung's whole rotation played on 25 Oct, Kanter had 23 and 9 at KoGas, and no absence has been reported for either side. Sono have let late leads slip and Samsung keep winning tight games, so a one-possession finish is the central case. That's why I'm siding with Samsung on the road.
