Two continental ties with very different shapes. In Suita, Gamba's attack in this competition has come from depth and wide supply, while Buriram have made very little of their own and arrive tired. In Hanoi, Seoul have the ball and the name, but the players who turn control into a margin stayed at home. One match is about a level gap in current content, the other about control without a cutting edge.
Gamba Osaka v Buriram. Under Myojin, Gamba hold the ball and arrive in numbers. Their goals in this competition have come from wide men and second-line runners, not just Usami and Jebali. Yamashita set up three in the 4-1, Adams two at Newcastle, and Toshida, Hümmet, Welton and Sumi have all scored. Even with a rotated side they created real chances in both continental games. Buriram sit in a mid-to-low block with a busy, foul-heavy midfield. In this competition they have created little, with most of their shots against Beijing coming from range, and goalkeeper Etheridge has kept their games tight.
The key matchup is Gamba's wide supply against Buriram's full-backs, with Etheridge as the last obstacle. Buriram's way in is a counter behind Gamba's high full-backs, but they have reached that space rarely in this competition. The schedule matters here: Buriram played a cup tie and a league game, lost at home, then flew to Osaka. Gamba had four days at home, and Ichimori's red card was a domestic one. Expect a slow first half, then Gamba's pressure telling after the hour as Buriram's legs go and they have to come out for points. That's why I'm siding with Gamba to win.
Viettel v Seoul. Seoul are the K League champions and want this badly, but the squad that travelled is missing Klimala, Jeong Seung-won, who supplies him, and goalkeeper Gu Sung-yun. All three played the full match at the weekend. The defence and midfield did travel, so Seoul should control the ball, especially if Paulinho's suspension opens the centre of Viettel's midfield.
Control is not the same as a margin. Even at full strength Seoul's recent first-team games have been tight, with few shots on target and penalties given away, and only one of their last ten was won by two goals or more. They are on a short turnaround after a flight, and the weekend starters only did recovery work. Viettel are in a poor run, but they rarely lose heavily, and at home they cross from Phan Tuan Tai's flank and attack set pieces against a new keeper. I expect Seoul's best spell early and a narrow game after the hour, so I'm siding with Viettel to stay close.
