Both of these Champions League ties pair an attack in form with a defence that has leaked chances all through this competition. Villarreal and PSG both press and both push their full-backs high, and every European match either has played this season has been open. Galatasaray need points at home but have conceded heavily in Europe, and Stuttgart arrive without their midfield controller and with a back-up keeper. Neither match looks set to stay controlled.
Villarreal against PSG. Luis Enrique's side win through volume, a high press and Hakimi's runs, and that volume has held without Dembele and Kvaratskhelia, as the five goals at Le Havre showed. They give chances back, though: City, Barcelona and Le Havre all created plenty against them. Villarreal stall at home against low blocks in La Liga, but in the Champions League opponents come at them, and their three games have been wide open, with goals from Mikautadze, Oluwaseyi, Cardona and Mourino. PSG's left-back spot is unsettled, which is where Buchanan runs. Villarreal sit near the bottom of the table and must chase. That's why I'm siding with a high-scoring match.
Galatasaray against Stuttgart. Buruk's side attack through Osimhen, with three goals in two games, and their wide runners, but their high full-backs have left every Champions League match this season wide open. Stuttgart without Stiller can't slow the game down, and they became a pure transition side at Leverkusen: they won, but they let in twenty-four shots. A reshuffled centre-back pair and a second-choice keeper now face Osimhen and a loud crowd. Galatasaray have to push for the points, and their press fades after half-time, which leaves space for Stuttgart's runners. That's why I'm siding with goals in Istanbul too.
