Two matches where the table and the home label say one thing and the underlying numbers say something quieter. In both, the side that looks weaker on paper creates chances at a rate that does not match its results, and the home side's story is built on a few flattering scorelines.
Preston against Sheffield United. Preston have lost their way: over their last ten they average about 2.6 shots on target for and 5.4 against, with roughly 39% of the ball. Their latest games read 3 shots at Stoke, six at Birmingham and a single shot on target in a 1-4 at Wrexham. That is a team that creates little and concedes a lot, not one that is unlucky. Their midfield absences have been there for weeks, so the poor numbers already include them. Sheffield are a modest side with narrow wins away from home, and they have already shown they can win without their two missing defenders. Kitching's suspension is the only fresh change. I expect Preston to sit deeper and hunt a counter, with Sheffield getting their chances from crosses and corners. That's why I'm siding with Sheffield United to win.
Galatasaray against Stuttgart. Galatasaray sit low in the Champions League table, and their results flatter them: a heavy home loss to Barcelona where they had a handful of shots, and a win at Lille that came on fewer chances than they conceded. Stuttgart's last ten show slightly better chance quality, more of the ball and a better table position. Their back line is thin, but Zagadou and Diehl have missed every game since mid-October and Stuttgart still won more than they lost, so this is not a new shock. Osimhen against two available centre-backs and Galatasaray's corners are the real danger, and the draw is a live result, which is why I want the draw removed. I'm siding with Stuttgart, with the stake back on a draw.
