This match is shaped by what Newcastle have lost in midfield this week, not by the table. Fulham will have the ball at home, and Newcastle arrive without the two runners who usually carry their counters. Behind them stands a stand-in keeper who has been at fault for goals in recent league games. The question is whether Fulham's patient possession finally turns into goals against a weakened unit.
Fulham at home are a possession side. They have held between 55 and 76 percent of the ball in recent games, and they have not conceded more than once in any of their last five. Against Hull they gave up almost nothing in open play. Newcastle's coach has said openly that under pressure they will go long, which tells you who sits and who carries the game.
The key matchup is in the middle of the pitch. Joelinton is injured and Ramsey is suspended, and both played in Newcastle's last league game, so this is a fresh hole. Without them the double pivot is rebuilt around Willock, and Newcastle lose the players who press forward and then break forward with the ball. That should hand Fulham the midfield territory and keep Newcastle's counter to one wave rather than two.
The second matchup is Fulham's shooting against Hornicek. Fulham take plenty of shots, often of modest quality, but Hornicek made errors at Coventry and let a shot from George squeeze under him against Everton. Even ordinary chances become live against him.
Newcastle's route is real: long balls to Osula or Wissa, with Barnes and Elanga running into the space behind Fulham's advanced full-backs. That is how they won at Palace. But their league attack has produced only one or two shots on target per game lately, and the first against Everton came in the 85th minute.
I expect Fulham to have most of the ball in a cagey first half, with the first goal as the turning point. If Fulham score first, Newcastle's thinned midfield has to come forward, and that opens the counter for a second. That's why I'm siding with Fulham to win this one at home.
