This matchup turns on the first runner and the pitching handover. SoftBank combine Kondo’s ability to reach base with Kurihara and Masaki’s power, while Nippon-Ham bring a right-handed middle order and flexible running options. The starters have already shown how different versions of the same meeting can produce either a tight contest or an early power breakthrough.
Sachiya Yamasaki’s seven innings of one-run pitching against SoftBank in September are the strongest evidence for keeping the home attack within reach. His latest league start also allowed one run across five innings. Converting contact into outs is central to his route, with the Fighters able to change their fielding and running mix through Mizuno and Isobata.
Livan Moinelo has been excellent at limiting hits, so Nippon-Ham’s attack is built around making a small number of openings count. Reyes, Mannami, Nomura and Gunji all appeared in the last First Stage order. Mannami’s homer and the singles that opened the scoring in that win show both the power route and the shorter contact chain.
Imamiya is unavailable following his official removal, and Yanagita’s reported neck problem makes a changed designated hitter role likely. That reduces a contact link in SoftBank’s order while leaving Kondo, Kurihara and Masaki as substantial threats. Kawase already played shortstop in the September starter meetings, so this is not a presumed collapse in home defence.
I expect the opening innings to revolve around traffic ahead of the middle bats, followed by carefully chosen relief segments. Fukushima and Hori have supplied short innings, Shimamoto and Tamai add further options, and Sun has already handled a longer bridge. Yanagawa’s three consecutive First Stage appearances were followed by a scheduled day off, giving Shinjo a concrete set of late-game choices.
That combination of demonstrated Yamasaki suppression, retained power and named relief options is why I’m siding with Nippon-Ham to keep this match close.
