Frosinone are a side that scores when the opponent gives them space, and Lecce are not going to give them any. Their best home wins came while they had less of the ball, so this match asks them to do something their record wasn't built on. In Florence it's a different picture: both back lines have been rebuilt this week, and each one faces the kind of attacker that has already hurt it.
Frosinone v Lecce. Frosinone beat Como with 35% of the ball and Sassuolo with 42%. They're a direct, crossing, high-volume team that also gives a lot away, about 2.4 xG against per game. Lecce under Di Francesco sit deep away from home: 33% at Udinese, where they allowed only 0.55 xG. When Frosinone have had to carry the ball, it turned into blocked shots. At Genoa they had 26 attempts, 13 were blocked, and it finished 1-1.
The matchup that worries me is Frosinone's wide delivery from Ghedjemis, Kvernadze and the full-backs against a patched Lecce centre-back pair. Gaspar is suspended and Tiago Gabriel is doubtful. Still, Lecce's midfield has been short for weeks and they've already played this shape. One counter from Geubbels into a Frosinone defence that leaks chances is enough to keep the score close. I'm siding with Lecce to stay within a goal.
Fiorentina v Atalanta. Atalanta come with eight players unavailable, including Hien, Kossounou, Kolasinac and Bellanova. Zappacosta drops to right-back, and Obric is left to hold a high line. He lost the aerial duel for the opener at Ajax and gave away the penalty at Milan, and now he faces Pellegrino in the air with Gnonto running behind. Fiorentina have lost Pongracic, so Dragusin and Viery are a new pairing against Krstovic, who has three goals in his last two league games, plus De Ketelaere.
Neither team can sit on a draw. Fiorentina have four points and Atalanta haven't picked up a point away from home. Whoever falls behind has both the time and a route back, and both sides have conceded late goals recently. That's why I'm on goals in Florence.
