Frosinone are a direct, high-event home side that wins by scoring early and in bursts, and Lecce arrive with both halves of their team hollowed out. The players who defend Lecce's box and attack set pieces are missing or half-fit, and so are the ones who carry their breaks. That turns this from a question of who wins into a question of how much room Frosinone get once they are ahead.
Under Alvini, Frosinone don't need the ball. They had about a third of it at home against Como and less than half against Sassuolo, yet took more than twenty shots in both, going forward quickly through Schmid behind Raimondo with Calò arriving from midfield. They usually strike early: four of their last five league games had a Frosinone goal inside the first quarter of an hour. Lecce under Di Francesco sit low away from home and live on breaks and Gallo's corners, and away from the Udinese win their attack has been thin, with barely any chance quality at Milan or Cagliari.
The key matchup is Raimondo and Schmid against Lecce's centre-backs. Gaspar is suspended after his red card against Juventus, and Tiago Gabriel came off injured in that game and barely trained, so the pairing will be makeshift or half-fit. Behind them the midfield is gone too: Ilic, Berisha, Coulibaly and Pierotti are all out, leaving Calò's late runs facing stand-ins. The same two missing centre-backs are Lecce's own corner targets, so the set-piece route weakens at both ends.
Lecce's best way out is a break through N'Dri or Fatah, but the coach himself said neither trained properly this week and the hope is to get only part of a game from them. With a short bench that he refuses to fill with youth players, Lecce have little to change after the hour.
So the flow I expect is Frosinone pushing early and in numbers, a first goal that forces a depleted Lecce out, and space for Frosinone's runners to add a second later on. Their closest same-level home games, against Sassuolo and Como, both ended in two-goal wins. That's why I'm siding with Frosinone to win this one by a clear margin.
