This semi-final second leg starts level after a goalless first leg, and that shapes everything. Flamengo have the ball and the home crowd but are without their main creator. Estudiantes arrive with their first-choice centre-back pair back and a cup side built to defend a low block. Neither team needs to take a big risk early, and every meeting between them this year has been tight.
The numbers back up the shape. Flamengo are unbeaten in this year's Libertadores and have conceded only five goals in ten games. Estudiantes have drawn six of their eleven cup games and conceded seven. The three meetings under Leonardo Jardim this year finished 1-1, 1-0 and 0-0. In La Plata last week, Flamengo had five shots, none on target and almost no expected goals.
The key matchup is Flamengo's creators against Estudiantes' two banks of four. With Arrascaeta out, Paquetá and Carrascal have to unlock the middle, and the more likely routes are Lino and Plata delivering from wide, plus corners. That is slow, patient volume, not a flood of chances. Rojo is cleared to play and Tomás Palacios is back from suspension, so the central gap that stand-ins left in the first leg should close.
At the other end, Jorginho returns after missing the first leg through suspension. Alongside Pulgar, he gives Flamengo the cover and second-ball control they lacked in Argentina. That takes away much of the counter-attacking space Carrillo and Tiago Palacios need, so Estudiantes are left mostly with crosses and set pieces.
I expect a long first half of Flamengo possession against a deep block, with few clear chances. If it stays goalless past the hour, Estudiantes will happily play for penalties. If Flamengo do score, Medina has to send on his bench forwards, but by then the window for a chase is short.
That's why I'm siding with a low-scoring game in the Maracanã. A restored back line, a missing playmaker and a tie in which a draw suits the visitors all point the same way.
