Fiorentina's high press will test Atalanta's first pass and can put runners into the space behind it. Atalanta have a direct answer through De Ketelaere between the lines and deliveries from Zappacosta toward Krstović. Both teams have shown how a loose second ball can become another box chance. The key battle is whether Fiorentina's early regains or Atalanta's next pass produce the cleaner finish.
Vanoli's side can release Jiménez, Mastantuono or Gnonto once Fagioli wins the ball, with Pellegrino waiting for the final pass. Atalanta's Éderson and other midfield receivers can move beyond that pressure into De Ketelaere, who connected with Krstović against Frosinone. Zappacosta supplied another goal in that match. Fiorentina reached the lead against Inter but spent long spells defending repeated box entries, with de Gea making eight saves.
Pongracic left the Inter match injured and is out, while Ranieri missed it and trained separately. Dragusin and Viery are the expected central pair after sharing only a short stretch of that match. Atalanta also have defensive absences and lost Bellanova and Scamacca from their recent league side, yet De Ketelaere, Zappacosta and Krstović remain the active receiving and finishing chain. Scalvini and Sulemana are back in the squad after missing Frosinone, with their roles still to be set.
Fiorentina should try to turn early pressure into a close shot. As the game opens, Atalanta's pass into De Ketelaere and the next delivery toward Krstović give them a documented route through the new central partnership. That combination has produced finishes even after Atalanta conceded first. I give those current box connections more weight than Fiorentina's home pressure, so I'm siding with Atalanta.
