Two matches where the headline numbers tell a different story once you put them against this particular opponent. In Florence, two weak back lines meet and the stronger attacking unit on the pitch belongs to the visitors. At Everton, a cup knockout puts a home side in its ball-carrying mode against a Newcastle team that scores in almost every game but gives up plenty of shots.
Fiorentina sit 19th and have not won a league game at home: one draw and three defeats, three goals scored. Under Vanoli they have scored exactly once in each league match and conceded two or more in each of the last three. Atalanta under Sarri create a lot, and even with a depleted group they produced a huge chance count against Frosinone last weekend.
The market leans on Atalanta's long injury list and their lack of away points. But those away defeats came at Roma, Juventus and Milan, a level Fiorentina are not at, while Fiorentina's home losses came against mid-table sides. Atalanta's absences are mostly defenders, and the unit facing them is the league's quietest home attack. Fiorentina also start a brand-new centre-back pairing, Dragusin and Viery, after Pongracic went off injured at Inter, and Krstovic has scored in each of his last two league games. That's why I'm siding with Atalanta not to lose this one.
At Everton, Moyes' side play two ways: a low block against the top teams, where all three of their recent blanks came, and a carrying, shot-heavy game against everyone else. Newcastle are in that second group on this sample, and they allow around sixteen shots a game with a second-choice keeper whose level swings. Newcastle themselves have scored in nine of their last ten, mostly through right-side crosses, and they aim them at an Everton left side that lost Mykolenko at Arsenal and may be without Branthwaite, the two defenders behind Everton's tight low-scoring games.
Both coaches have said they will pick strong sides. The first goal probably comes after the break, and in a knockout the trailing side has to chase within the ninety minutes, which opens space for a reply. That's why I'm siding with goals at both ends in this one.
