In both of these matches each side has a clear way to hurt the other, and neither has a way to shut the other out completely. The Istanbul derby puts Eczacibasi's serve against a Fenerbahce reception line with a new libero, while Fenerbahce's carried-over setter link is the better closer of tight sets. In Freiburg, Bayern's attack is untouched by their absences, but their whole defensive screen, their goalkeeper and their head coach are missing.
Fenerbahce keep their attacking core around Orro: Vargas at opposite, Fedorovtseva, Ana Cristina and Eda Erdem. What's new is the coach, Lavarini, and the libero, and so far they have only been tested by weaker sides. Even Besiktas took two sets off them. Eczacibasi keep Bregoli and their setter Dilay Ozdemir for a second season, with a new opposite in Antropova and new middles. Against Vakifbank, the best side in the league, their serve, opened by Uzelac's runs, won them at least two sets in each of three meetings. Their late-set finishing faded each time, though.
So I expect Eczacibasi to take a set or two early through serve pressure, and Fenerbahce's setter and opposite to pull them through the long, tight sets. Neither side's clean sweeps this season came against anyone of this level. That's why I'm siding with a long, split match.
Bayern win by volume: Kane dropping deep, runners in behind, shot after shot and plenty of corners. That route does not need Kimmich, Pavlovic or Musiala, and Bayern have failed to score only once in their last ten. Their weakness is the space behind a high line and how they manage a lead. They conceded early or from long balls against Augsburg, Viking and Arsenal, and they let leads slip late.
This time Kimmich and Pavlovic are both out, so there is no screen in front of the defence. Urbig replaces Neuer in goal, Tah replaces Kim, and assistant Aaron Danks leads the side while Kompany is in hospital. Freiburg's goals come from crosses, headers and set pieces, and from turnovers and runners in behind, and those are exactly the parts of Bayern that have been weakened. Freiburg have won all their recent home games and scored in each of the last three meetings at their ground. Their open play has dipped since Monaco, but their way in here does not depend on sustained possession. That's why I'm siding with goals at both ends.
